I was in New York City recently to attend an investing conference. One of the speakers did not focus on investing but instead the Washington DC political picture. The speaker was Greg Valliere, whom I have had the pleasure of hearing before. I find his outlook on the political scene to be quite good. I thought that since many of [...]
Domestic equities finished the second quarter relatively unchanged, as better than expected corporate earnings and enthusiasm surrounding a reaccelerating U.S. economy were balanced by concerns over the Greek debt crisis and Chinese market volatility. Despite volatility abroad due to global issues, international and emerging markets finished slightly positive for the quarter. There was some concern regarding earnings in April, as [...]
The US stock market recorded small gains in the 1st quarter with the S&P 500 up almost 1%, reaching all-time highs midway through the quarter before giving back some of those gains. Amid the choppy US market trading, international developed and emerging markets outperformed the S&P 500 during the quarter with gains of 4.9% for the MSCI EAFE developed markets [...]
Oil took center stage amid the staggering 40%-plus decline in the price of crude during the quarter. More than half of the losses in crude came after the Thanksgiving OPEC meeting where its members, led by Saudi Arabia, voted against reducing crude production. Crude prices plummeted and closed the year on the lows, unable to find support. Most experts over [...]
The 3rd quarter ended on a market downdraft that has continued into October on the back of “the 4 E’s”: Energy, Earnings, Europe and Ebola. Crude oil declined 14.1% in the 3rd quarter and is down 7.5% year to date as of September 30. Oil has been hit by both supply and demand side factors: the slowing global growth means [...]
The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both recorded their sixth consecutive quarterly gain in the second quarter, a streak not seen for over 14 years; this despite the fact that many investors have expected the six-year long bull market for stocks to end. Stocks continue to set record highs, yet the S&P 500 only can be considered fairly valued today [...]
I had the privilege of hearing Karl Rove speak recently. I know many of you follow politics very closely and I thought it would be interesting to relay my impressions from his speech. For those of you on the younger end of the newsletter readership or who do not follow politics that closely, Karl Rove is a Republican political consultant [...]
After beginning the year with strong relative performance of interest-rate sensitive and defensive equities, the second half of the year was led by economically sensitive sectors, such as consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials, which began to outperform when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled a sooner than anticipated QE3 tapering against the backdrop of stronger economic data. The sectors that lagged [...]
Introduction At the time of this letter, it does not make that much sense to review the past quarter. Much of the quarter was just a prelude to the two major events of the last month—the Fed announcement in mid-September, and the actions of Congress the first two weeks of October. Those two events received so much media attention I [...]
Introduction One of the main tenets of investing is diversification. I have spoken of it many times in these letters. Most managers build their portfolios with this concept in mind and over time diversification achieves steady returns with a balanced risk profile. The past quarter, year-to-date and current rally are exceptions. The US stock market has done very well while [...]